Best bet: Over 51. Week 2 NFL picks, odds, 2023 best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay pays 25-1 SportsLine's Projection Model reveals its top Week 2 NFL picks, NFL bets, NFL predictions, 25-1. Learn from FiveThirtyEight's analysis, tools and stories on the NBA landscape and its players. The computers at 538 are up and running and have made their first predictions for the season. Nate Silver@natesilver538. Preseason predicted standings for the NBA’s 2022-23 Western Conference, according to. A. See odds, expert picks and TV Schedule for Game 3 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. $40. * FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. 064). Best matchups in the round of 64 of the 2023 men’s NCAA Tournament, according to the harmonic mean of FiveThirtyEight’s team ratings. 2026. Stroud has one of the best passer ratings in the NFL. 0m. Statistically, his Elo model for NFL is probably the best freely available one you'll find. The primary. The history-based projections consist of a rolling average of the actual minutes played in recent games by each player, multiplied by their projected availability for today’s game. This is basically a bet on a Giannis Antetokounmpo revenge tour, because the Bucks haven’t really done anything to revamp the rotation after losing in the first round to Miami. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. The computers at 538 are up and running and have made their first predictions for the season. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and. Luka Dončić and LeBron James have been among the league’s most prolific stat-producers so far this season. 4. 29, 2023. But this prediction isn't presupposing they'll win a first-round playoff series against Milwaukee, Boston or Philadelphia. (SN illustration) The 2023 NFL season figures to be another wild-ride for 285 games all the way through Super Bowl 58. 5) are currently tied for the highest projection in the league, while oddsmakers have pegged the Washington. 0. During the streak, New York singed the nets to the tune of 124. It is even so deep that you can choose your NBA Predictions for two different forecast systems. Lenneth wrote: Well, at least 538 gave Warriors 87% of making a PO this season. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Build. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of. Design and development by Jay Boice. The Bulls beat the Heat by six points Saturday, halting the Heat's seven-game win streak and ending. I love FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver is a fucking wizard of predictions. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Get ready for a new NBA season with rankings, projections, breakout picks and everything you need to know about all 30 teams. Vegas consensus has them at 8. . Version History. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. Star trades are rare in the NBA. Season. St. Dickinson 16 TXSO √ 11 Pittsburgh 11 Miss. It does in our season forecast, which simulates the rest of the schedule 50,000 times and tracks where every team ends up in the standings. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. The 27-year-old wing is coming to the NBA as the reigning EuroLeague MVP after averaging 17. 6. But. The model is based on FiveThirtyEight‘s RAPTOR-based forecast with 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. FiveThirtyEight's 2021-22 NHL forecast predicts the winner of each hockey game and calculates each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. They have all the talent in the world, including three possible NBA lottery picks. 2: “Refs aren’t held accountable for errors!”. The model in question, FiveThirtyEight’s 2021-22 NBA Predictions, is updated after every game and using their forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings, sees the Celtics in a tie with the Los. 9. The NBA economy is constantly evolving. 09-07-2023 • 8 min read. 2m. RealGM ForumsUpdated June 12, 2023, at 12:26 a. When I looked at their current. 0. 107) or 2019 (0. FiveThirtyEight lists their predictions for the entire NBA season to date. opened the season among the inner circle of favorites to win the NBA championship, joining the Brooklyn Nets and. L. Download this data. The 2019 NBA Draft Class Is Short (By Basketball Standards) FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Ditto Paul George and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers ranking among this season’s best duos. The top nine teams from each conference — 18 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. Optimistic? Perhaps. More WNBA: How this works. We released our forecast. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the. Standings. How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Gentry is a freelance journalist covering the NBA and WNBA. 2 — and presumably has a number of good years left in the tank, especially if he plays into. Specifically, we get our projected records and team odds by running 50,000 simulations of the schedule. IntroductionThe Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks (54. Compare the team ratings, game metrics and win probabilities of the top contenders and sleepers, and learn how the forecasts are calculated and updated. 133) wasn’t as good as it had been in 2015 (0. Men’s team ratings. The Knicks’ Winning Streak Is Over. 6. Sixers star Joel Embiid is having an MVP-caliber season, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings, Embiid is one of the most well-rounded and impactful players in the league on each end of the court. 915 OPS in Triple-A last season and is Baseball America’s No. 9. The model in question, FiveThirtyEight’s 2021-22 NBA predictions, is updated after every game. Conf. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for 2022-23 Post #52 » by Hugi Mancura » Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:25 pm Number might look crazy, but if this depends lot of players netrating or on/off stats, then it would at least explain some of the Jazz position. 1-Week Change. Download this data. FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions. How this works: When a trade is made, our model updates the rosters of the teams involved and reallocates the number of minutes each player is expected to play. Introduction 57. fivethirtyeight. POR) COVID-19. Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances and are scaled to an 82-game regular season. Standings. 33. Filed under NBA. Forecast from. Point spread: Steelers (+2. Post #1 » by bisme37 » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:10 pm. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Of the 50 most valuable sports franchises in the world according to Forbes’ 2022 rankings, 30 are NFL teams. FiveThirtyEight. The Nuggets had the best record (53-29) in the Western Conference last season then dominated the postseason, posting a 16-4 record on their way to a championship. The Nets covered the spread as 9-point underdogs Sunday in a 122-120. The 2023 NFL season is finally here. The x axis represents the probability that FiveThirtyEight’s model gave a given team of winning a given game, and the y axis is the percentage that a team won when given that percentage. Version History. According to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions, which are based on strength of schedule over the remaining few games, the current standings in the West will stay exactly as they are – incredible. 11, 2023, at 6:00 AM. Finals. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. The No. Yes, you read that correctly. The R-squared was slightly higher for RAPTOR (0. They just released their updated 2020-2021 NBA Predictions. A 12-Team College Football Playoff Would Be Big Enough. Statistical models by Nate Silver and Jay Boice. 2 percent during his 56 games with the Suns prior to the trade (and to 24. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. 18, 2019. Aces Dream Fever Liberty Lynx Mercury Mystics. March Madness is a special time of year for college basketball. 2. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. 7, 2021. C. $2. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. 747 votes, 118 comments. So if you click on NBA Predictions you have the oppertunity to choose between the Carmelo Player Projections or the pure Elo forecast. Easily the most reliable way to find the "value" picks. State √ 11 Arizona St. m. 5. 13, 2023, at 10:58 PM. 2. Design and development by Jay Boice. The two-time reigning MVP is now a pretty heavy favorite to capture the award for the third consecutive season. First, we answer the call put out by Shannon Sharpe on Fox Sports’ “Undisputed. New starting second baseman Miguel Vargas had a . Inconsistent, wrongful projections. FiveThirtyEight . Standings Games PitchersDuring that stretch, Harden’s shot attempts fell off and his scoring average dropped to 19. Mar. 2023-24 Kia Season Preview: Team-by-team previews, analysis, predictions, fantasy guide, GM Survey and more. UPDATED Jun. Prediction 1: Miami Heat to Cover the Spread (+5. 17, 2022. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. 4. St. Each week, Fantasy Nerds tracks the game predictions of the best and brightest in the NFL and compares them to the actual game outcomes. Design and development by Jay Boice. 118), but it was much better than in 2018 (0. A short, but still mathy, example of how Brier scores work: Our initial predictions gave No. sometimes the best comparison for a football game in 2023 is an NBA game from the 1990s. 8 Arkansas and No. ESPN NBA insider Kevin Pelton unveils his annual win projections for all 30 teams. Chris Herring was a senior sportswriter for FiveThirtyEight. The bottom three teams are relegated. . FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across <x> leagues. The slope is about right for RAPTOR (1. A Crash Course In NFL Rushing Stats. From 2001 to 2016, the Patriots’ average season-ending Elo rating was 1701, the best 16-season stretch in league history. 1 For the season, the Knicks still boast the league’s fifth-best offense and. Or to be more precise, welcome to the initial 2017-18 edition of CARMELO. Download this data. 8, 2018 at 11:36 PM 2017-18 NBA Predictions 1,735. 5) as the league's worst team. r/nba • [FiveThirtyEight] Everyone’s A Favorite In Our 2022-23 NBA Forecast. Published Jul 4, 2022. The two most consistent teams this season by STABLE, Arsenal and Newcastle, just so happened to be the two biggest overperformers, based on actual points earned per match versus. 40%. Just ask Boston Celtics swingman Jaylen Brown, who just agreed to the richest contract in league history. Injury icons are an approximation of the share of minutes that a player. I've seen the FiveThirtyEight NBA Projections get a lot of hate, especially for their Warriors prediction, but it really doesn't make sense to pick and choose teams when evaluating a model's performance. 3 percent shooting (29. -3. Category 1: two-way guys who are pluses on both ends (Quickley, White) or elite defenders who are average offensively (the rest). FiveThirtyEight. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Jay Boice was a computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight. Without Lopez on the court, the Bucks allow 113. Here's how each expert compares and who is the most accurate game predictor of the 2023 NFL season. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Wemby is accustomed to accolades after being named MVP of the top French pro league at 19 years old. Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III ), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO. We use numbers to express uncertainty. Kansas City's offense wasn't clicking on. Specifically, we get our projected records and team odds by running 50,000 simulations of the schedule. 1 percent from three). Anyone. Preseason predicted standings for the NBA’s 2021-22 Eastern Conference, according to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR-based forecast Teams finishing in seventh through 10th place (indicated by black. Although it seems like the 2019-20 NBA season just ended — the Los Angeles Lakers lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy a scant. The Brooklyn Nets (39-29) and Oklahoma City Thunder (33-35) meet Tuesday at Paycom Center. As of Oct. Barnes did more than just reach the playoffs, though. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. According to FiveThirtyEight analyst Ryan Best, Disney/ABC is no longer supporting FiveThirtyEight's sports division, including all forecasts and presumably the RAPTOR model as well. Another NBA season is upon us with the opening of the 2022-2023 campaign, and this one feels more wide open than ever. To prepare for the next 1,230 games (All-Star festivities excluded), we took each player’s projected Real Plus-Minus. Fivethirtyeight is special and goes deep with theire sports calculations. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t. Filed under Basketball. Download forecast data. 1. 35. FiveThirtyEight have published their predictions for the 2022-23 NBA season, which tips the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets to reach the finals. 8, 2020. Their forecast, based on RAPTOR player ratings, has the Celtics tied with the Los Angeles Clippers. 6 billion in salary this year. The Best NBA Players Of The Last 6 Seasons By Neil Paine. Almost exactly a year after shipping James Harden to the. Allowing Williams to roam free as a help defender paid enormous dividends, given that he is one of the NBA’s best rim protectors. Kyle Wagner: (sports editor): So FiveThirtyEight has U. FiveThirtyEight’s (simulated) men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament forecasts calculate the chance of each team reaching each round. FiveThirtyEight. If you really think about it, most teams don't have any championship equity in a top-heavy, star-dependent league such as the NBA. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. By Josh Evanoff. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Updated Nov. FiveThirtyEight predictions: 45% playoffs, <1% West, <1% Finals. From those predictions, FiveThirtyEight’s model runs simulations to play out the remaining league season 20,000 times to calculate an overall predicted final league table. Like always, this…Check out FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions. To that end, our RAPTOR-based prediction model now gives the Kings a 49 percent chance of making the playoffs. 32%. fivethirtyeight. But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic forecast for each matchup — and our game punishes. -4. “When you describe it as ‘stand. How this works: When a trade is made, our model updates the rosters of the teams involved and reallocates the number of minutes each player is expected to play. The player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it. Early projected standings and playoff chances for the 2018-19 NBA season, according to FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo model. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. Next >. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. What lies ahead for all 30 NBA teams? Here are the stars, stats and bets you need to know ahead of opening night. A. Sure enough, if you visit FiveThirtyEight, all of their forecasts are off the homepage. 4 A team that improves as much as Charlotte did last season (a net of +22 wins) can expect. 0. The site also featured sports predictions for the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and the Premier League. 5 Pitcher adjustment added for starters designated as openers. 14, 2023, at 6:00 AM. When James Harden arrived in Houston on Oct. Boston is the slight +380 favorite in the 2023 NBA futures odds to win it all. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Each year, one of my favorite fantasy football experiences is a big. Although it seems like the 2019-20 NBA season just ended — the Los Angeles Lakers lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy a scant. They force us (and you) to think about the world probabilistically, rather than in absolutes. 8. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors. How Our 2015-16 NBA Predictions Work By Jay Boice. 2: “Refs aren’t held accountable for errors!”. Basketball-Reference. 39-26, 6th in East, 14 games back. The reason why Vegas is so much lower than FiveThirtyEight is because nobody is betting the. Teams. We’re glued to the FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions. sara. Mar. . Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. Things were a little less smooth after that: New York went 37-21 to close out the. In The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets Nate Silver explains why FiveThirtyEight generally should not beat the market: “The general question of whether. Latest Videos. Standings. Brackets originally published March 13. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. That’s a pretty good list! Nic Batum, for instance, was coming off of a down year by the conventional metrics. Without Lopez on the court, the Bucks allow 113. Keep an eye on our 2017-18 NBA predictions, updated after every game. Once the total line is created our over under pick model springs into action. FiveThirtyEight. Jordan Addison has seven touchdowns. ET. 76%. e. 5) as the league's worst team. 2022 MLB Predictions Updated after every game. Once we have a projected final score we compare it to the over under line. The Best NBA Players, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. Among players who played at. 20, 2023, at 6:00 AM. Round-by-round probabilities. Injury icons are an approximation of the share of minutes that a player. Makes total sense. Semis. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. It's weird, people like to say teams that were doing great and then got decimated by injuries late in the season are poised to dominate this year, but conviniently forget all the teams that were obliterated early/mid season by injuries and covid but ended healthy. Aug. To achieve this goal, we built a tailored machine learning model to make predictions for NBA games – that is, predicting the probability of each team winning an NBA game, as well as presenting the rationale behind the. On October 19, 2021, the day the NBA season began, FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR model projected that the Warriors would go 36-46, finish with the eighth-worst record in the NBA, miss both the. Raiders. More. Ahead of today’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals, let’s get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. 7 percent, good for third-best in the NBA, and you have arguably the most quietly lethal offensive season of the modern era: JokiÄÐ â ¡ is in a low-usage. UPDATED Jun. This is probably not what people were expecting in several cases so I thought I'd see what we think about this. In anticipation of the masters, Neil examines Tiger Woods’s. 5 games back. 35. The dataset consists of all 778 games played through Feb. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system,. The site gives the Heat a 24% chance to win the first-round playoffs series. By Neil Paine, Ian Levy, John Ezekowitz and Andrew Flowers. By Zach Wissner-Gross. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Our men’s model is principally based on a composite of six computer power ratings: Ken Pomeroy’s ratings; Jeff Sagarin’s “predictor” ratings Sonny Moore’s ratings. Meanwhile, the Wizards are all the way down in eighth at +10000. The bottom two teams are relegated. If you’ve followed along with our NBA projection system in recent years, you probably noticed a recurring theme. 8, 2020. Projected seeding W-L: 5-3; 33-39 (play-in participant vs. FiveThirtyEight’s models suggested 11 teams have at least a five percent. 538 uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, science and life. Team. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. Download forecast data. Design and development by Jay Boice. For some reason, when I request the content of the html page, I get a. 5 percent chance of advancing to the Sweet 16, while Ken Pomeroy’s log5 model gave. How our March Madness predictions work ». See their straight up, against the spread, over/under, underdog and prop picksSuperstar: We’re talking players like Anthony Davis here (about one of these per draft class). @herring_nba. Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below. C. 6 points per game last season with Olympiacos and shooting. One. How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. 2. Sarah Stier / Getty Images. Statistical models by. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. com: Bucks have a 76% chance to win series vs. 4. Find out how FiveThirtyEight and ESPN's 2022-23 NBA forecasts agree and disagree on various topics, such as the Celtics, the Lakers, the Bucks and the Warriors. The basics of CARMELO are the same as last year . Forecast from. 9 defensive RAPTOR) and Nemanja Bjelica (+3. But the women’s tourney was a bit more predictable. Joe Robbins / Getty Images. The 1969-70 season was a great one for New York basketball. TLDR: FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts of NBA playoff berths seem to hold-up OK against betting markets. Scores. How We’re Improving Our NBA Forecast For 2022-23 By Holly Fuong and Neil Paine. FiveThirtyEight's 2019 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of. At the moment, we are still using the 2018-19 schedule because the 2019-20 version hasn. FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 36% East, 14% Finals. m. Teams. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. He has allowed just 50. Overall, our NFL predictions had a surprisingly good year in 2020, despite the pandemic backdrop. The perennial exercise — really, exercises — are based off of the statistical analysis outfit’s. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. L. 5 percent) more than double those of the eighth-worst record (4. The bottom three teams are relegated. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo” rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). San Francisco’s Elo average from 1981 to. Pelicans prediction: FiveThirtyEight gives the Pelicans a 68 percent chance of winning this game, a much closer spread than what we see with the Raptors and Bulls or with either of the.